Cryonics

Links to other information.

  1. Being alive and healthy is fun, and definitely beats the alternative.
  2. Today's medical technology can't always keep us alive, let alone healthy.
  3. A future medical technology based on a mature nanotechnology should be able to preserve life and restore health in all but the most extreme circumstances.
  4. Tissue preserved at the temperature of liquid nitrogen does not deteriorate, even after centuries of storage.
  5. If current medical technology can't keep us alive we can instead choose to be frozen, with the expectation that future medical technology should be able to both reverse the freezing injury and restore good health.

A common misconception is that cryonics freezes the dead. As the definition of "death" is "a permanent cessation of all vital functions" the future ability to revive a patient frozen with today's technology implies the patient wasn't dead. Cryonics is actually based on the more plausible idea that present medical practice has perhaps erred in declaring a patient "dead." A second opinion from a future physician -- one with access to a fundamentally better medical technology based on a mature nanotechnology -- lets us avoid the unpleasant risk that we might bury someone alive.

Evaluating cryonics

The major reason that cryonics is not more favorably viewed in the medical community is relatively easy to explain. Medicine relies on clinical trials. Put more simply, if someone proposes a technique for saving lives, the response is "Try it and see if it works." Methods that have not been verified by clinical trials are called "experimental," while methods that have been tried and failed are rejected.

In keeping with this tradition, we would like to conduct clinical trials of the effectiveness of cryonic suspension to determine whether it does (or does not) work. The appropriate trials can be easily described. Cryonics proposes to freeze people with today's technology in the expectation that medical technology of (say) the year 2100 will be able to cure them. Thus, the appropriate clinical trials would be to:

  1. Select N subjects.
  2. Freeze them.
  3. Wait 100 years.
  4. See if the technology of 2100 can indeed revive them.
The reader might notice a problem: what do we tell the terminally ill patient prior to completion of the trials?

While this problem is not entirely unique to cryonics (the plight of a dying patient who wishes to know whether or not to take a new experimental treatment is well known), cryonics poses it in a qualitatively more severe fashion: we must wait longer to determine the outcome and we have no preliminary results to provide a clue about what that outcome might be. If a new treatment is being tested we normally have the results of animal trials and perhaps some preliminary results from human patients. Further, we expect to get reliable results within a small number of years. In the case of cryonics, we are quite literally awaiting the development of an entirely new medical technology. Preliminary results, even on experimental animals, are simply not available; and the final results won't be available for at least several decades.

Thus, while we can begin the clinical trials required to evaluate cryonics today, clinical trials cannot provide a timely answer about the effectiveness of cryonics. It is not possible (utilizing the paradigm of clinical trials) to draw conclusions today about whether physicians tomorrow will (or will not) be able to revive someone who was cryonically suspended using today's technology.

Does cryonics work?

The correct scientific answer to the question "Does cryonics work?" is: "The clinical trials are in progress. Come back in a century and we'll give you a reliable answer." The relevant question for those of us who don't expect to survive that long is: "Would I rather be in the control group, or the experimental group?" We are forced by circumstances to answer that question without the benefit of knowing the results of the clinical trials.

In order to show that cryonics will not work (or even to show that it's unlikely to work) it is necessary to show that no future technology, no matter how advanced, will ever be able to revive the suspended patient. When we consider what is routine today and how it might have been viewed in (say) the 1700's, we can begin to see how difficult it is to make a well founded argument that future medical technology will never be able to reverse the injuries that occur during cryonic suspension.

Is the treatment worse than the disease?

Finally, there is the risk that a proposed treatment might be worse than the disease (which creates a strong prejudice against the use of experimental treatments on human beings). Current laws require that cryonic suspension begin after "legal death" (which should be distinguished both from death by current medical criteria and death by the medical criteria of (say) the year 2100). This presumably implies a rather small risk. Even with complete patient autonomy (as could happen in the future) cryonics will only be used when the patient is terminal and has little remaining life, either in quantity or quality. There is little need, in the case of cryonics, to fear that the cure will be worse than the disease.

What to do

It works It doesn't work
Sign up Live Die, lose life insurance
Do nothing Die Die
How might we evaluate cryonics? Broadly speaking, there are two available courses of action: (1) sign up or (2) do nothing. And there are two possible outcomes: (1) it works or (2) it doesn't. This leads to the payoff matrix to the right. In using such a payoff matrix to evaluate the possible outcomes, we must decide what value the different outcomes have. What value do we place on a long and healthy life? (It is important to realize that the kinds of medical technology required to reverse freezing injury will almost certainly be able to restore good health for an extended period). What (presumably negative) value do we place on being dead? And finally, in the absence of direct experimental results in one direction or the other, what estimate do we make of the chances that it will work?

While different people will answer these questions in different ways, this provides a useful framework in which to consider the problem.

Present successes

It is worth pointing out that a fairly wide range of simple tissue types have been successfully frozen and thawed, including very early human embryos, sperm, skin, bone, red and white blood cells, bone marrow, and others. The use of glycerol (anti-freeze, see molecular structure at left) greatly reduces freezing damage.

Summary

Cryonics proposes to use an experimental treatment on human patients with no expectation that clinical trials will be completed anytime in the near future. This has created some controversy. Despite this, cryonic suspension is the medically conservative course of action (in the best sense of the word "conservative.") Conventional medical criteria pronounce the suspended patient "dead." These criteria are disputed by those who support cryonics, who argue that (at the very least) this diagnosis might be in error. If there is a debate about whether or not a patient is dead it would seem inappropriate to resolve the dispute by placing the patient in a furnace, particularly if this course of action is against the wishes of the patient.

If we wish to gain some insight today about the chance that cryonics will or will not work we must consider (a) the kinds of damage that are likely to occur during suspension and (b) the kinds of damage that future medical technologies might reasonably be able to repair. Those interested in pursuing this subject can read The Molecular Repair of the Brain.


For further information:

Those interested in joining the experimental group can contact:
The Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr. Suite 110
Scottsdale AZ 85260-6916

phone: 602-922-9013 or (toll free) 877-462-5267
fax: 602-922-9027
email: info@alcor.org
www: http://www.alcor.org

No action is needed to join the control group. (Quite a few people well known in the fields of computer science, software development, and other high tech areas have joined the experimental group. "... we've discovered a new Silicon Valley trend." Dan Gillmor, Mercury News Technology Columnist, July 19 1998. See also).

The cryonet home page has links to other information.

Chapter 9 of Engines of Creation discusses biostasis and cryonics.

The molecular repair of the brain discusses the technical issues surrounding the feasibility of cryonics.

The Prospect of Immortality (1965) by Robert C. W. Ettinger, is now available on the web. This book started the cryonics movement.

Jim Halperin's 1998 novel, The First Immortal, is a well researched and entertaining introduction to the subject.

Cryonics, cryptography, and maximum likelihood estimation discusses the surprisingly close relationship between cryptanalysis of World War II rotor machines and the problem of inferring neuronal wiring given partial information.

A page on Nanotechnology and Medicine discusses some of the improvements in medicine that should be feasible with a mature nanotechnology.

The growing movement for increasing autonomy and control by the terminally ill patient will likely improve the conditions under which cryonic suspensions can be performed. The Oregon Death With Dignity Act is one manifestation of this movement.



This page is part of Ralph C. Merkle's web site.